by Team Del Genio
Friday, Mar 31, 2023After sending some conflicting signals early in the year, the San Antonio Spurs are fully committed to tanking at this point of their season.
The team was an early surprise in the league when they won five of their first seven games in October. Yet once the calendar turned to November, everything went south for this group. The Spurs close out the month of March tonight having only won seven times in their last twenty-three games. They have lost seven times in their last eight games, and they are on a five-game losing streak with no result being closer than 11 points after a 128-117 setback at home to Utah as a 2.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
At this point of the season, head coach Gregg Popovich is not getting much out of his team after embarrassing losses like this. San Antonio has covered the point spread only four times in their last sixteen games following a loss by ten or more points, and they have covered the point spread just once in their last eleven games after losing three or more games in a row by ten or more points.
Effort can often be measured by the commitment to work on the defensive end of the court. The Jazz shot 54.4% from the field against them, making it the fifth straight game where they allowed their opponent to shoot 52% or better against them. The Spurs have covered the point spread in six of their last twenty-two games after playing a game where they allowed their opponent to shoot 55% or better from the field. They have covered the point spread in three of their last fifteen games after playing a game where they allowed 125 or more points. San Antonio is allowing 122.6 points per game on 50.8% shooting this season, and their last five opponents are averaging 130.0 points per game on 55.7% shooting.
The Spurs' scoring attack has cratered as well. They are averaging 112.1 points per game on 46.4% shooting yet they have only managed 102.4 points per game on 41.9% shooting in their last five games.
Injuries to Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson have not helped the Spurs’ cause this season. Vassell has missed half of the team's 76 games this season after not playing against Utah due to injury management. The former first-round pick out of Florida State was in the midst of a breakout season in his third year in the league. The 6'5 shooting guard is averaging 18.5 points per game, an increase of 6.2 points per game over last year's number. Vassell has made 38.7% of his 3-point shots this season. He has added 3.6 assists per game and 3.9 rebounds per game.
Johnson has missed 15 games this year after not playing for the third time in the last four games dealing with a foot injury against the Jazz on Wednesday. The former first-round pick out of Kentucky in 2019 has raised his scoring average by five points to 22 points per game this year. The 6'5 wing has added 5.1 rebounds per game.
With both those players out indefinitely and a list of players questionable for tonight, San Antonio lacks the talent to keep up with a hard-working team like Utah. We jumped on the opportunity to take the Jazz as a small road favorite in that game. Unfortunately, the value in betting against the Spurs may be gone in the final two weeks of the season in April. In their game on Friday night against Golden State, the Warriors were installed by the oddsmakers initially in the 14.5-point range before the market bet them up to a favorite in the 18.5-point range. While it is difficult to lay that many points in the NBA, backing a Spurs team with nothing to play for and a roster full of injuries at this late point of the season is ill-advised.
San Antonio has now clinched one of the bottom three spots in the standings which ensures them an equal chance to win the lottery with Detroit and Houston to earn the right to draft Wembanyama. Yet it is hard to imagine the players available to Popovich can now suddenly flip the switch.
Sometimes the best decision is to pass.
Good luck - TDG.
The team was an early surprise in the league when they won five of their first seven games in October. Yet once the calendar turned to November, everything went south for this group. The Spurs close out the month of March tonight having only won seven times in their last twenty-three games. They have lost seven times in their last eight games, and they are on a five-game losing streak with no result being closer than 11 points after a 128-117 setback at home to Utah as a 2.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
At this point of the season, head coach Gregg Popovich is not getting much out of his team after embarrassing losses like this. San Antonio has covered the point spread only four times in their last sixteen games following a loss by ten or more points, and they have covered the point spread just once in their last eleven games after losing three or more games in a row by ten or more points.
Effort can often be measured by the commitment to work on the defensive end of the court. The Jazz shot 54.4% from the field against them, making it the fifth straight game where they allowed their opponent to shoot 52% or better against them. The Spurs have covered the point spread in six of their last twenty-two games after playing a game where they allowed their opponent to shoot 55% or better from the field. They have covered the point spread in three of their last fifteen games after playing a game where they allowed 125 or more points. San Antonio is allowing 122.6 points per game on 50.8% shooting this season, and their last five opponents are averaging 130.0 points per game on 55.7% shooting.
The Spurs' scoring attack has cratered as well. They are averaging 112.1 points per game on 46.4% shooting yet they have only managed 102.4 points per game on 41.9% shooting in their last five games.
Injuries to Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson have not helped the Spurs’ cause this season. Vassell has missed half of the team's 76 games this season after not playing against Utah due to injury management. The former first-round pick out of Florida State was in the midst of a breakout season in his third year in the league. The 6'5 shooting guard is averaging 18.5 points per game, an increase of 6.2 points per game over last year's number. Vassell has made 38.7% of his 3-point shots this season. He has added 3.6 assists per game and 3.9 rebounds per game.
Johnson has missed 15 games this year after not playing for the third time in the last four games dealing with a foot injury against the Jazz on Wednesday. The former first-round pick out of Kentucky in 2019 has raised his scoring average by five points to 22 points per game this year. The 6'5 wing has added 5.1 rebounds per game.
With both those players out indefinitely and a list of players questionable for tonight, San Antonio lacks the talent to keep up with a hard-working team like Utah. We jumped on the opportunity to take the Jazz as a small road favorite in that game. Unfortunately, the value in betting against the Spurs may be gone in the final two weeks of the season in April. In their game on Friday night against Golden State, the Warriors were installed by the oddsmakers initially in the 14.5-point range before the market bet them up to a favorite in the 18.5-point range. While it is difficult to lay that many points in the NBA, backing a Spurs team with nothing to play for and a roster full of injuries at this late point of the season is ill-advised.
San Antonio has now clinched one of the bottom three spots in the standings which ensures them an equal chance to win the lottery with Detroit and Houston to earn the right to draft Wembanyama. Yet it is hard to imagine the players available to Popovich can now suddenly flip the switch.
Sometimes the best decision is to pass.
Good luck - TDG.
