Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/19/2023

Game Time: 5:07 pm ET, Thursday, October 19, 2023

Venue:  Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ

Where to Watch:  TBS

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -130, D-Backs +110; Over/Under:  9 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -135, D-Backs +115; Over/Under:  9 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -130, D-Backs +110; Over/Under:  9 runs

Philadelphia Phillies:  90-72 (2nd place, NL West)

Arizona Diamondbacks:  84-78 (2nd place, NL West)

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Philadelphia Phillies:  8-2 last 10

Arizona Diamondbacks:  5-5 last 10

The Phillies are entering this series on a 2 game winning streak and won their best 3 out of 5-game series against the Atlanta Braves 3-1 in the NLDS. They finished the regular season with a 90-72 record overall and had a road record of 41-40. This is the 3rd game of a best 4 out of 7 game series with the Diamondbacks on Thursday for the NLCS and they won game 1 and game 2 of this series on Monday and Tuesday. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .765 OPS. Aaron Nola was their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Ranger Suárez is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 4-6 with a 4.18 ERA this season. His team won their last 5 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB playoff start, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 0 BB with 2 Ks on 3 hits through 5 IP against the Atlanta Braves.

The Diamondbacks are entering this series on a 5 game winning streak and completed the sweep 3-0 in their best 3 out of 5 game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL Division Series. They finished the regular season with an 84-78 record overall and had a home record of 43-38. This is the 3rd game of a best 4 out of 7 game series with the Phillies on Thursday for the NL Championship Series and they lost game 1 and game 2 of this series on Monday and Tuesday. Their offense ranks 17th in the MLB with a .730 OPS. Merrill Kelly was their starting pitcher on Tuesday while rookie pitcher Brandon Pfaadt is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB playoff start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 0 BB with 2 Ks on 2 hits through 4.1 IP against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The current betting odds have the Phillies listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Phillies are entering this game with a 2-0 series lead after winning both of their home games to start this series. The Phillies won both home games but they also did it in dominating fashion as they have been on a roll in these playoffs, only losing 1 game in all 3 series they have played. The Phillies are a really tough team to stop when they get hot like this and they did something very similar when they went to the World Series last year. They are looking to do the same thing this season by making another deep run to the World Series and their team is a lot better than it was last season. Their pitching has been great in these playoff games but their offense has also been red hot while the Diamondbacks finished the regular season as a very mediocre team with their offense and pitching. The Phillies are rolling right now and they are not a team to fade when playing like this. The best way to place a bet here is on the Phillies to win this game and take a 3-0 series lead. 

Phillies Diamondbacks Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, October 19, 2023 (5:07 pm ET start time) is Phillies 5 Diamondbacks 2.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 46-26 (+14.3 units) on the moneyline when the money line is -100 to -150. 7-1 (+7.2 units) on the moneyline in playoff games. 12-4 UNDER after a win by 6 runs or more. 12-6 UNDER after 4 or more consecutive wins.

Arizona Diamondbacks: 0-6 (-7.2 units) on the moneyline after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs. 3-17 (-14.4 units) on the moneyline after scoring 4 runs or less in 4 straight games. 42-23 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5. 8-2 UNDER revenging a loss where the opponent scored 10 or more runs.

Philadelphia Phillies:  E. Uelmen (RP) out for season - Elbow. D. Covey (RP) Out indefinitely - Back. R. Hoskins (1B) out for season - Knee.

Arizona Diamondbacks:  J. McCarthy (RF) Out indefinitely - Oblique. M. Melancon (RP) out for season - Shoulder. T. Henry (SP) out for season - Elbow. D. Jameson (RP) out for season - Elbow. D. Fletcher (RF) out for season - Finger. A. Adams (RP) out for season - Ankle. C. Martin (SP) out for season - Shoulder.

“I feel like we like our chances, for sure.” - Aaron Nola after their win against the Diamondbacks in game 2 of this series on Tuesday.

“Look, we could be playing on the moon. Everybody is talking about coming into this environment, and I don’t care. We have to play better baseball. Everybody has to be better. You can start with the manager and then trickle all the way down through the entire team.” - Torey Lovullo after his team’s loss against the Phillies in game 2 of this series on Tuesday.

Kyle Schwarber (L) DH

Trea Turner (R) SS

Bryce Harper (L) 1B

Alec Bohm (R) 3B

Bryson Stott (L) 2B

J.T. Realmuto (R) C

Nick Castellanos (R) RF

Brandon Marsh (L) LF

Johan Rojas (R) CF

Corbin Carroll (L) RF

Ketel Marte (S) 2B

Tommy Pham (R) DH

Christian Walker (R) 1B

Gabriel Moreno (R) C

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) LF

Alek Thomas (L) CF

Evan Longoria (R) 3B

Geraldo Perdomo (S) SS

Batting Average:  Weston Wilson (.313)

Hits:  Nick Castellanos (170)

Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (47)

RBI:  Nick Castellanos (106)

Stolen Bases:  Bryson Stott (31)

Wins:  Taijuan Walker (15)

Saves:  Craig Kimbrel (23)

ERA:  Orion Kerkering (0.00)

Batting Average:  Seby Zavala (.357)

Hits:  Corbin Carroll (161)

Home Runs:  Christian Walker (33)

RBI:  Christian Walker (103)

Stolen Bases:  Corbin Carroll (54)

Wins:  Zac Gallen (17)

Saves:  Paul Sewald (13)

ERA:  Peter Strzelecki (0.00)

Managers:

Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (2nd season)

Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (7th season)