by Kyle Hunter
Wednesday, Sep 27, 2023I always like to look at perception of teams and gauge when might be the time to sell high or buy low. Today, we’ll take a look at four teams who are winless against the spread so far this year. These are teams that I believe could have value moving forward.
Georgia Bulldogs (0-3-1 ATS) Who would have expected that the number one team in the country would be winless against the spread at this point in the season? Georgia has played a very weak schedule. UT Martin, Ball State, and UAB are all terrible teams. South Carolina is the only pretty good team they have played so far. Georgia screwed around in that game and they were down 14-3 going into the locker room. They flipped the switch in the second half and won.
The Bulldogs are just 51st in yards per carry against this weak schedule. They only have five sacks on the season defensively. The Bulldogs stat profile isn’t great.
Having said all of this, Georgia is the most talented team in the country. The Bulldogs are going to turn it on at some point.
Michigan Wolverines (0-4 ATS) Here is #2 in the nation! Michigan has typically been a team that crushes weaker opponents. The Wolverines were amazing in the large favorite role in the last six or eight years under Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh missed the first three games due to his suspension. Maybe that bothered the team and threw off the rhythm a bit.
Michigan is still a great team, and the Wolverines are now not thought of as highly in the marketplace. The Wolverines are really strong in the trenches, and that should help them win and cover a lot of games in the poor weather games in the Big Ten. I’m not going to adjust Michigan much at all in my power ratings. Harbaugh’s team will get it going against the spread too.
UTSA Roadrunners (0-4 ATS) UTSA is a team I expected to be very good this year. So far this season I’ve been wrong on this bunch. They are winless ATS on the season, but they have a bye week this weekend and the hope is Frank Harris will be back soon. Harris is a star, but he has been hobbled this year, and the backups had to play against Tennessee.
UTSA’s schedule gets much softer later this year. The Roadrunners still play UAB, E Carolina, Rice, and USF at home. UTSA still has a much higher talent level than many of the teams they will play against in this conference. I think we’ll have a chance to buy low on UTSA soon.
Troy Trojans (0-4 ATS) Troy was a covering machine last year. Now, they are 0-4 ATS so far this season. Troy doesn’t have an elite defense like they had last year, but they are still very solid on the defensive end. The Trojans offensive line has been abused by strong defensive lines in the non-conference slate. While it will still be a question mark, there are quite a few weaker defensive lines in the Sun Belt on their schedule the rest of the way.
