National League Futures Consideration

Atlanta is the clear favorite to win the World Series and is priced accordingly in the National League market. The Dodgers are close behind, before a big gap to reach the other teams that will or could still be involved this October. Both are worthy candidates to make a World Series run but would not be worth entering the market presently at the current prices. 

This is just the second season of the current 12-team playoff format and last season provided both extremes with a #1 seed and a #6 seed reaching the World Series. In the National League this season the same two teams will be the top two seeds: Atlanta and Los Angeles. Neither made the NLCS last season which was a pairing of the #5 and #6 seeds that won in the Wild Card round, San Diego and Philadelphia. When considering the current prices, one option stands out as a worthy consideration in the NL market right now. 

CONSIDERATION: MILWAUKEE BREWERS +950 TO WIN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE

Avoiding Atlanta’s side of the bracket seems to be a big advantage as Milwaukee could be a in favorable position, not having to play Atlanta or last year’s NL champion Philadelphia until a potential pairing in the NLCS. Should Milwaukee advance to the Division series, they would face the Dodgers with the NL West leaders certainly still a formidable draw, thus the significant underdog price. 

The Brewers would have a clear edge in starting pitching in that series however as the Dodgers don’t have their typical postseason options of the past few seasons including Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, Walker Buehler, or Julio Urias. Clayton Kershaw is still pitching well but lacks an amazing postseason track record while the remaining starting options include trade deadline acquisition Lance Lynn who has been erratic this season, a trio of rookies: Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, and Emmet Sheehan, or long reliever Ryan Yarbrough. 

Milwaukee’s trio of starters Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta would give the Brewers an edge in several matchups with Milwaukee also possessing elite relief options led by Devin Williams, Joel Payamps, and Abner Uribe.

Milwaukee’s lineup will finish with below average numbers for the regular season and the Brewers went just 20-25 vs. left-handed starters. Kershaw will be the only left-handed starting option for the Dodgers unless Yarbrough gets a start, while the current late-inning bullpen options include only two left-handers as well that aren’t considered in the top tier of the Los Angeles bullpen. 

Milwaukee has also put together a .744 team OPS in the past month heading into the final days of the regular season for a significant improvement on the season numbers as the additions of Carlos Santana, Mark Canha, and Josh Donaldson have provided some proven power in the lineup, while July call-up Sam Frelick has also provided a spark. 

Anything can happen in a three-game series, but the Brewers have an excellent home record and had good numbers vs. the Cubs, Marlins, and Reds, with an Arizona team Milwaukee struggled with appearing more likely to earn the #5 position to face the Phillies in the Wild Card series. 

The Brewers have never won the World Series and have never appeared in the World Series as a National League team, switching leagues in 1998, so there isn’t much history on Milwaukee’s side. The Brewers did make the NLCS back in 2018 however and this will be the team’s fifth playoff appearance in the past six seasons as there is postseason experience, while Craig Counsell is generally regarded as one of the better in-game managers. 

Given the high-end pitching for Milwaukee and a postseason path that is lining up preferably, Milwaukee may have a better opportunity than the current pricing suggests, even if the matching 1-5 season records vs. the Braves and Dodgers are tough to get past. Milwaukee does have a winning record vs. the Phillies and a winning road record this season, which is a consistent theme for World Series champions.