by Scott Rickenbach
Monday, Apr 29, 2024Money Line Options in Spread Sports
Even In spread sports there can be cases where money line utilization makes sense. First off, I recommend always doing your handicapping as you normally would. For me, that is situational based. However, once you have done that then look at the value of utilizing the money line. This is particularly true of the games with smaller spreads of course as large money lines present too much risk.
Lets say you wrapped uo your handicapping and had decided on two bets. In the first one, the road dog has no discernible variation either way but the home fave does and it is the home team that you were wanting to play. Lets say the home team is 8-2 SU last 10 games but 3 of the 8 wins were by 3 or less points. The line on this game is -4 let's say.
So in the example above, in theory, if you lay the -4 you have a 50-50 chance of winning the bet because only 5 of their last 10 games have resulted in a win by more than 3 points. But the money line is, in theory, an 8-2 or 80 percent win rate per the SU 8-2 record used in this example. Now, let's say the money line is -175. 8 wins is 800 in winnings and 2 losses equate to 350 in defeats. As you can see, that is much better odds than 50-50. In a case like this, laying the money line is not only worth a look, it seems like a great option.
In another example let's say you are looking at a dog that is only 3-7 last 10 games but 4 of the 7 losses by 5 or less points. The line on this game lets say is 5.5 and the money line is +200 on the dog. So if you bet the dog in 10 games at this value in theory you are looking at +600 in wins but -700 in losses. A losing proposition. Conversely, on the spread you would be looking at 7 wins (3 outright and 4 via the spread) and that equates to +700 while the 3 losses would cost you -330. This is something strong to get behind. So in this case the spread makes more sense!
In summary, you can see that digging deeper can often help you hone in on additional value when looking for the best way to put the odds in your favor on a game you like. Keep this in mind when you are considering money line plays - whether dog or fave - as there are often cases where a money line makes the most sense. After all, the biggest key to sports betting is putting the odds in your favor!
Even In spread sports there can be cases where money line utilization makes sense. First off, I recommend always doing your handicapping as you normally would. For me, that is situational based. However, once you have done that then look at the value of utilizing the money line. This is particularly true of the games with smaller spreads of course as large money lines present too much risk.
Lets say you wrapped uo your handicapping and had decided on two bets. In the first one, the road dog has no discernible variation either way but the home fave does and it is the home team that you were wanting to play. Lets say the home team is 8-2 SU last 10 games but 3 of the 8 wins were by 3 or less points. The line on this game is -4 let's say.
So in the example above, in theory, if you lay the -4 you have a 50-50 chance of winning the bet because only 5 of their last 10 games have resulted in a win by more than 3 points. But the money line is, in theory, an 8-2 or 80 percent win rate per the SU 8-2 record used in this example. Now, let's say the money line is -175. 8 wins is 800 in winnings and 2 losses equate to 350 in defeats. As you can see, that is much better odds than 50-50. In a case like this, laying the money line is not only worth a look, it seems like a great option.
In another example let's say you are looking at a dog that is only 3-7 last 10 games but 4 of the 7 losses by 5 or less points. The line on this game lets say is 5.5 and the money line is +200 on the dog. So if you bet the dog in 10 games at this value in theory you are looking at +600 in wins but -700 in losses. A losing proposition. Conversely, on the spread you would be looking at 7 wins (3 outright and 4 via the spread) and that equates to +700 while the 3 losses would cost you -330. This is something strong to get behind. So in this case the spread makes more sense!
In summary, you can see that digging deeper can often help you hone in on additional value when looking for the best way to put the odds in your favor on a game you like. Keep this in mind when you are considering money line plays - whether dog or fave - as there are often cases where a money line makes the most sense. After all, the biggest key to sports betting is putting the odds in your favor!
