Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/04/2023

Game Time: 8:08 pm ET, Wednesday, October 4, 2023

Venue:  Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA 

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins +130, Phillies -155; Over/Under:  8 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins +140, Phillies -160; Over/Under:  8 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins +125, Phillies -150; Over/Under:  8 runs

Miami Marlins:  84-77 (3rd place, NL East)

Philadelphia Phillies:  90-72 (2nd place, NL East)

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Miami Marlins:  5-5 last 10

Philadelphia Phillies:  7-3 last 10

The Marlins are entering this series off a loss but won their 3-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates 2-1 in their last series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with an 84-77 record overall and had a road record of 38-42. This is the 2nd game of a best 2 out of 3 game series with the Phillies on Wednesday for the NL Wild Card Series and they lost game 1 of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 19th in the MLB with a .722 OPS. Jesús Luzardo was their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Braxton Garrett is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 9-7 with a 3.66 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 ER, 2 HR, and 2 BB with 2 Ks on 3 hits through 4 IP against the New York Mets.

The Phillies are entering this series off a win but lost their 3-game series against the New York Mets 2-1 in their last series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with a 90-72 record overall and had a home record of 49-32. This is the 2nd game of a best 2 out of 3 game series with the Marlins on Wednesday for the NL Wild Card Series and they won game 1 of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .765 OPS. Zack Wheeler was their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Aaron Nola is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 12-9 with a 4.46 ERA this season. His team won their last 4 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 1 homer, and 0 BB with 8 strikeouts on 4 hits through 6.2 innings played against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The current betting odds have the Phillies listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This will be the 2nd game of a best of 3 series to see who advances to the NLDS and the Phillies have a 1-0 series lead after winning the 1st game on Tuesday. The Phillies have been really hot coming into the playoffs and they are now on the verge of kicking the Marlins out of the playoffs with a win here. The Phillies are starting Nola in this game and he hasn't been great this season but he does have playoff experience from last year as he was their ace and he will be looking to step up in a big way in this game. The Marlins are going with Garrett who has also been great this season but he doesn't have the playoff experience that Nola has and Garrett will fold in this high pressure situation. The Phillies also have the better offense and they have been so much better in their home games all year. The best way to place a bet here is on the Phillies to win this game. 

Marlins Phillies Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, October 4, 2023 (8:08 pm ET start time) is Phillies 5 Marlins 2.

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Miami Marlins: 84-77 (+6.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. BRAXTON GARRETT is 21-9 (+11 units) on the moneyline in all games. BRAXTON GARRETT is 7-3 OVER against division opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies: 25-27 (-9.7 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 52-47 (-8.2 units) on the moneyline in night games. AARON NOLA is 20-11 OVER in all games and 22-9 OVER after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing.

Miami Marlins:  L. Arraez (1B) Out indefinitely - Ankle. S. Alcantara (SP) out for season - Elbow. J. Davis (CF) Early Oct - Knee. T. Rogers (SP) Early Oct - Bicep. E. Perez (SP) Out indefinitely - Hip. T. Nance (RP) out for season - Oblique. A. Garcia (RF) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. M. Barnes (RP) out for season - Hip. A. Bender (RP) out for season - Elbow. M. Meyer (SP) out for season - Elbow.

Philadelphia Phillies:  E. Uelmen (RP) out for season - Elbow. D. Covey (RP) Out indefinitely - Back. R. Hoskins (1B) out for season - Knee.

“I think they know what's at stake. They know what tomorrow means. We're going to do the same thing we've always done.” - Skip Schumaker after his team’s loss against the Phillies in game 1 of this series.

“We’ve got to get back after it this year, and it’s a different team. I believe it’s a better team, to be honest with you.” - Rob Thomson after his team’s win against the Marlins in game 1 of this series.

Luis Arraez (L) 2B

Jorge Soler (R) DH

Josh Bell (S) 1B

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) CF

Jake Burger (R) 3B

Bryan De La Cruz (R) LF

Jesus Sanchez (L) RF

Jon Berti (R) SS

Nick Fortes (R) C

Kyle Schwarber (L) DH

Trea Turner (R) SS

Alec Bohm (R) 3B

Bryce Harper (L) 1B

J.T. Realmuto (R) C

Nick Castellanos (R) RF

Bryson Stott (L) 2B

Cristian Pache (R) LF

Johan Rojas (R) CF

Batting Average:  Luis Arraez (.354)

Hits:  Luis Arraez (203)

Home Runs:  Jorge Soler (36)

RBI:  Bryan De La Cruz (78)

Stolen Bases:  Jazz Chisholm (22)

Wins:  Jesus Luzardo (10)

Saves:  A.J. Puk (15)

ERA:  Robert Garcia (0.00)

Batting Average:  Weston Wilson (.313)

Hits:  Nick Castellanos (170)

Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (47)

RBI:  Nick Castellanos (106)

Stolen Bases:  Bryson Stott (31)

Wins:  Taijuan Walker (15)

Saves:  Craig Kimbrel (23)

ERA:  Orion Kerkering (0.00)

Managers:

Miami Marlins: Skip Schumaker (1st season)

Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (2nd season)