Liberty Flames vs Oregon Ducks Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 01/01/2024

Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Monday, January 1, 2024

Venue:  State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Liberty +17, Oregon -17; Over/Under:  68 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Liberty +17, Oregon -17; Over/Under:  67.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Liberty +17, Oregon -17; Over/Under:  67.5 points

Liberty Flames:  13-0 (8-0) (1st place, C-USA)

Oregon Ducks:  11-2 (8-1) (2nd place, Pac-12)

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Liberty Flames:  won their last game at home against the New Mexico State Aggies 49-35.

Oregon Ducks:  lost their last game at a neutral site against the Washington Huskies 34-31.

Liberty is entering this game with a 13-0 record overall and they have an 8-0 record in their conference games too. They are 8-0 in their home games, 5-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against New Mexico State 49-35. Kaidon Salter was the starting QB and he completed 20/25 passes for 319 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Kaidon Salter led the team in rushing yards with 165 and 1 TD. CJ Daniels led the receivers with 157 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 1 TD. Brandon Bishop led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack in that one. Brandon Bishop came away with the only interception for them in that game.

 

 

 

Oregon is entering this game with an 11-2 record overall and they have an 8-1 record in their conference games too. They are 7-0 in their home games, 4-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They lost their last game against Washington 34-31. Bo Nix was the starting QB and he completed 21/34 passes for 239 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Bo Nix led the team in rushing yards with 69. Tez Johnson led the receivers with 68 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Tysheem Johnson led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Nikko Reed and Popo Aumavae each led the defense in sacks with 1. Khyree Jackson came away with the only interception for them in that game.

The current betting odds have Oregon listed as a 17 point favorite in this Fiesta Bowl game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Oregon has looked really good in their games this season with their 11-2 record overall and their only 2 losses this season came against the same team, the Washington Huskies. They lost earlier in the season in Washington and then won every other game to get to the Pac-12 Championship, but they lost again at a neutral site against Washington who is now in the college football playoff. Meanwhile, Liberty has also looked great in their games this season with their 13-0 record overall and they went on to win the Conference USA Championship too. Liberty had a great season in its 1st year with Chadwell as head coach, but they also play in a much weaker conference than the Pac-12. Oregon was looking like one of the best teams in the country all year until they lost to Washington a 2nd time, but they aren't going to want to go out like that on a loss. Oregon doesn't have many players opting out of this game and they are still one of the best in the country with all of their starters in. They will be looking to end the year the right way with a win in this bowl game and hand Liberty their 1st loss of their season. The best way to place a bet here is on Oregon to cover the spread in this game. 

Liberty Oregon Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Monday, January 1, 2024 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Oregon 49 Liberty 13.

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Liberty Flames: 9-4 ATS in all games. 27-8 ATS as an underdog. 25-11 ATS after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers. 20-10 UNDER as an underdog. 11-6 UNDER off 1 or more straight overs. 9-0 UNDER after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game.

Oregon Ducks: 7-13 ATS as a neutral field favorite. 8-15 ATS after a loss by 3 or less points. 8-4 UNDER as a favorite. 8-4 UNDER after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. 6-3 UNDER after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers.

Liberty Flames:  J. Jenkins (TE) out for season - Eligibility. V. Jones Jr. (WR) out for season - Knee. R. Smith (WR) out for season - Knee.

Oregon Ducks:  T. Franklin (WR) Out Mon - Personal. G. Bryant Jr. (WR) Prob Mon - Leg. J. Delgado (WR) Out indefinitely - Leg. A. Boyle (K) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. N. Whittington (RB) out for season - Foot.

“If you've watched us for 13 weeks, we're the best G5 team in this country. Six wins over bowl teams. Our average margin of victory is 17 points. We have dominated our opponents. We belong in that New Year's Six.” - Jamey Chadwell after his team’s win against NM State in their last game which was the Conference USA Championship.

"That one hurts. It was a four-quarter fight. You just can't start off slow against a good team. We obviously started off slow." - Dan Lanning after his team’s loss against Washington in their last game which was the Pac-12 Championship.

WR Daniels, CJ  

WR Frith, Noah 

WR Smoot, Elijah  

TE Hanshaw, Bentley  

QB Salter, Kaidon 

RB Bedgood, Aaron  

RB Cooley, Quinton

WR Franklin, Troy 

WR Bryant Jr., Gary 

WR Johnson, Tez 

TE Ferguson, Terrance 

QB Nix, Bo 

RB Irving, Bucky

Passing: K. Salter (2750)

Rushing: Q. Cooley (1322)

Receiving: C. Daniels (988)

Touchdowns: Q. Cooley (16)

Passing: B. Nix (4145)

Rushing: M. Irving (1063)

Receiving: T. Franklin (1383)

Touchdowns: T. Franklin (14)

Coaches:

Liberty Flames: Jamey Chadwell (1st season)

Oregon Ducks: Dan Lanning (2nd season)