by Rod Pearson
Sunday, Dec 31, 2023
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Monday, January 1, 2024
Venue: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Where to Watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Iowa +5, Tennessee -5; Over/Under: 35.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Iowa +5, Tennessee -5; Over/Under: 35.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Iowa +5.5, Tennessee -5.5; Over/Under: 35.5 points
Season Record
Iowa Hawkeyes: 10-3 (7-2) (1st place, Big Ten West)
Tennessee Volunteers: 8-4 (4-4) (3rd place, SEC East)
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Recent Form
Iowa Hawkeyes: lost their last game at a neutral site against the Michigan Wolverines 26-0.
Tennessee Volunteers: won their last game at home against the Vanderbilt Commodores 48-24.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs Tennessee Volunteers Preview and Analysis
Iowa is entering this game with a 10-3 record overall and they have a 7-2 record in their conference games too. They are 6-1 in their home games, 3-1 in their road games, and they are also 1-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They lost their last game against Michigan 26-0. Deacon Hill was the starting QB and he completed 18/32 passes for 120 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Leshon Williams led the team in rushing yards with 25. Addison Ostrenga led the receivers with 50 receiving yards on 7 receptions. Sebastian Castro led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Yahya Black, Logan Lee, Deontae Craig, and Max Llewellyn each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
Tennessee is entering this game with an 8-4 record overall and they have a 4-4 record in their conference games too. They are 6-1 in their home games, 1-3 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against Vanderbilt 48-24. Joe Milton was the starting QB and he completed 22/33 passes for 383 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Jaylen Wright led the team in rushing yards with 75. Ramel Keyton led the receivers with 122 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 2 TDs. Will Brooks led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Tyler Baron led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
Iowa vs Tennessee Prediction
The current betting odds have Iowa listed as a 5 point underdog in this Citrus Bowl game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Iowa has looked great in their games this season with their 10-3 record overall despite winning a lot of ugly games this year. They had a very successful season as they went to the Big Ten Championship but ended up losing to Michigan. Meanwhile, Tennessee has also looked good in their games this season with their 8-4 record overall but they really struggled against the tougher teams in their conference as they were 4-4 in the SEC. They also won 6 of their 8 games at home this year and they haven't looked nearly as good in their games that weren't at home. Tennessee also has a bigger disadvantage here with their opt-outs as they have a ton of key players entering the transfer portal, including their starting QB along with a lot of other starters on the offense. Iowa doesn't have nearly as many starters in the transfer portal and they also have one of the best defenses in the country this season as they don't give up many points. The Iowa defense will keep them in this game like they have in their games all season so expect Iowa to keep this a close game if they don't win it outright. The best way to place a bet here is on Iowa to cover the spread in this game.
Iowa Tennessee Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Monday, January 1, 2024 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Iowa 13 Tennessee 10.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Iowa Hawkeyes: 16-7 ATS after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. 10-4 ATS after scoring 17 points or less in 3 straight games. 11-4 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread. 28-12 UNDER in all games. 21-8 UNDER when the total is 42 or less. 18-7 UNDER off 1 or more consecutive unders.
Tennessee Volunteers: 1-4 ATS as a neutral field favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. 6-11 ATS off a home win. 4-10 ATS off a home win by 17 points or more. 17-7 UNDER when the total is 42 or less. 14-7 UNDER after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread.
Key Injuries
Iowa Hawkeyes: T. Hall (DB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. C. DeJean (DB) out for season - Leg. T. Washington Jr. (RB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. E. All (TE) out for season - Knee. C. McNamara (QB) out for season - Knee. A. Fahey (OL) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. R. Osgood (WR) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. L. Lachey (TE) out for season - Ankle.
Tennessee Volunteers: J. Milton III (QB) Out Mon - Undisclosed. J. Wright (RB) Out Mon - Personal. D. Bishop (RB) Early Jan - Ankle. D. Thornton Jr. (WR) out for season - Lower Body. K. Hadden (DB) out for season - Shoulder. C. Charles (DB) Out indefinitely - Ankle. B. McCoy (WR) out for season - Ankle. K. Garland (LB) out for season - Undisclosed. K. Pili (LB) Out indefinitely - Upper Body.
Notable Quotes
“Tonight certainly wasn’t our night. We knew we came in here needing to play pretty much a flawless game. Obviously, we didn’t do that, didn’t do a great job protecting the football, and a couple of other situations. It was disappointing tonight.” - Kirk Ferentz after his team’s loss against Michigan in their last game which was the Big Ten Championship.
“It got pretty chippy for a bit. We talked at halftime about playing smart football.” - Josh Heupel after his team’s win against Vandy in their last game of the college football regular season.
Starting Lineups
Iowa Hawkeyes
WR Brown, Kaleb
WR Anderson, Seth
WR Ragaini, Nico
TE Ostrenga, Addison
QB Hill, Deacon
RB Williams, Leshon
FB Large, Hayden
Tennessee Volunteers
WR Nimrod, Chas
WR Keyton, Ramel
WR White, Squirrel
TE Warren, Jacob
QB Iamaleava, Nico
RB Small, Jabari
Statistical Leaders
Iowa Hawkeyes
Passing: D. Hill (1096)
Rushing: L. Williams (804)
Receiving: E. All (299)
Touchdowns: E. All (3)
Tennessee Volunteers
Passing: J. Milton III (2814)
Rushing: J. Wright (1013)
Receiving: S. White (765)
Touchdowns: D. Sampson (8)
Coaches:
Iowa Hawkeyes: Kirk Ferentz (25th season)
Tennessee Volunteers: Josh Heupel (3rd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
