Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Purdue Boilermakers Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/29/2024

by Rod Pearson

Wednesday, Mar 27, 2024
Game Time: 7:39 pm ET, Friday, March 29, 2024
Venue:  Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI
Where to Watch:  TBS, TruTV


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Gonzaga +5.5, Purdue -5.5; Over/Under:  154 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Gonzaga +5.5, Purdue -5.5; Over/Under:  154 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Gonzaga +5.5, Purdue -5.5; Over/Under:  154.5 points

Season Record

Gonzaga Bulldogs:  27-7 (14-2) (2nd place, WCC)
Purdue Boilermakers:  31-4 (17-3) (1st place, Big Ten)

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Recent Form
Gonzaga Bulldogs:  4-1  last 5
Purdue Boilermakers:  4-1  last 5


Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Purdue Boilermakers Preview and Analysis


Gonzaga is entering this game with a 27-7 record overall, a 14-2 record in conference games, and they are 6-3 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Kansas Jayhawks in their last game. Anton Watson led the team in points per game in that game with 21 while Nolan Hickman was next on the team with 17. Ryan Nembhard led the team in assists with 12 in that game while Ben Gregg and Graham Ike each led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 60.3% from the field, 53.3% from 3-point range, and 73.3% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 85 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 68.8 PPG against them. Gonzaga has an ATS record of 17-16 this season and their O/U record is 17-16.


Purdue is entering this game with a 31-4 record overall, a 17-3 conference record, and they are 8-1 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Utah State Aggies in their last game. Zach Edey led the team in points in that game with 23 while Trey Kaufman-Renn was next on the team with 18. Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith each led the team in assists with 6 in that game while Zach Edey led the team in rebounds with 14. They were 55.9% from the field, 47.8% from 3-point range, and 82.6% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 83.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 69.5 PPG against them. Purdue has an ATS record of 18-15-2 this season and their O/U record is 23-12.



Gonzaga vs Purdue Prediction

The current betting odds have Purdue listed as a 5.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Purdue has looked really good in their games this season with their 31-4 record overall which has them ranked inside the top 25 teams in the country and also ranked as one of the best in the nation. They have looked great in the Big Ten this season with their 17-3 conference record which is the best in the conference, but they didn't win their conference tournament. Even though they lost in the Big Ten Tournament, they have still looked great in their neutral site games with their 8-1 record in those. Meanwhile, Gonzaga has also looked really good in their games this season with their 27-7 record overall and their 14-2 conference record. They were right near the top of the WCC this season but didn't have the best conference record during the season and just like Purdue didn't win theirs, Gonzaga didn't win their conference tournament either. Gonzaga has looked good in their neutral site games with their 6-3 record in those, but they haven't really been tested in this tournament either. They blew by McNeese State in the 1st round and pulled off another big win against Kansas in the last round, but Kansas wasn't the same team finishing the season with their injuries. Purdue hasn't had a test in this tournament either but they have looked so good in both rounds with massive wins and they already have a 10 point win against Gonzaga from earlier this season too. The best way to place a bet here is on Purdue to cover the spread in this game. 

Gonzaga Purdue Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Friday, March 29, 2024 (7:39 pm ET start time) is Purdue 81 Gonzaga 69.
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NCAAB Betting Trends


Gonzaga Bulldogs: 4-9 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more. 3-10 ATS after 2 straight games forcing the opponent to commit 8 or less turnovers. 5-9 ATS after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better. 32-19 OVER as a neutral court underdog or pick. 8-4 OVER after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals.

Purdue Boilermakers: 8-2 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or pick. 30-21 ATS in a postseason tournament game. 25-11 ATS after 2 straight games forcing the opponent to commit 8 or less turnovers. 23-12 OVER in all games. 22-11 OVER as a favorite. 6-1 OVER after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite.

Key Injuries


Gonzaga Bulldogs:  None.

Purdue Boilermakers:  None.

Notable Quotes


“Late December, it was looking like maybe it wasn't going to happen. But I'll give credit. These guys stayed coachable. We figured it out." - Mark Few after his team’s win against Kansas in their last game in the 2nd game of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday.


“Today was just our day. After we kind of get settled into the game, we were able to establish Zach at the rim. That was just too much for them and then we balanced some things out.” - Matt Painter after his team’s win against USU in their last game in the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament on Sunday.


Starting Lineups


Gonzaga Bulldogs
B. Gregg 
N. Hickman 
G. Ike 
R. Nembhard 
A. Watson

Purdue Boilermakers
Z. Edey 
L. Jones 
T. Kaufman-Renn 
F. Loyer 
B. Smith

Statistical Leaders


Gonzaga Bulldogs
PPG: G. Ike (16.9)
APG: R. Nembhard (6.4)
Reb/G: G. Ike (7.3)

Purdue Boilermakers
PPG: Z. Edey (24.2)
APG: B. Smith (7.2)
Reb/G: Z. Edey (11.7)

Coaches:
Gonzaga Bulldogs: Mark Few (25th season)
Purdue Boilermakers: Matt Painter (19th season)


Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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