College Basketball January Update: Four Teams to Sell High On

I like to think of the college basketball betting marketplace like the stock market. You are always wanting to buy low and sell high. It’s the middle of January now, and teams are in the middle of conference season. Let’s take a look at four teams that could be good sell high candidates- and we’ll also look at why they might be a team to sell/fade.

BYU Cougars (12-5 ATS) BYU is a good team, but I don’t think they are as good as their ATS record would indicate. BYU is ranked in the KenPom Top 10. This is a team that is holding opponents to 27% shooting from 3 point range. Their defense is improved, but it isn’t this good. 

BYU has only played three road games so far this season. The Cougars are in a much tougher conference now in the Big 12. There are no weak teams to beat up like BYU saw in the WCC in previous seasons. BYU relies on the three point shot as much as anyone in the country, and those jump shooting teams can struggle on the road in hostile territory.

St. Joe’s Hawks (11-6 ATS) It looked like this team had turned a corner in non-conference play, but their inconsistencies are showing up once again in Atlantic 10 play. St. Joe’s went from playing very good defense early in the season to giving up 1.11 points per possession (poor) in A10 play. 

They have played only the 301st toughest schedule in the country, and now they are about to play quite a few solid teams in conference. The Hawks have great wins over Villanova and Princeton, but they also lost to Texas A&M Commerce and Rhode Island.

Radford Highlanders (12-4 ATS) We have to look at under the radar teams as well. The Radford Highlanders are a whopping 12-4 ATS on the season, but I see some concerning signs from them. Radford is allowing 1.131 points per possession in Big South play. This isn’t a conference known for highly efficient offenses either. 

Radford ranks 340th in the nation in height. The Highlanders rank in the second percentile in the country in quality of shot taken. Radford is unlikely to be able to keep hitting so many tough shots. Radford is also now in a role of laying quite a few points consistently, and I think they could be a good fade moving forward.

Minnesota Golden Gophers (14-3 ATS) Back to a big name team for our final look here. The Minnesota Golden Gophers have played the 296th toughest schedule so far this season. I don’t have to tell you that things are about to get a lot tougher for them as they try to navigate through a deep Big Ten Conference. 

Minnesota has played only three true road games. The Golden Gophers have a great home court advantage, but I don’t trust them to continue to play so well on the road. Minnesota is 11th in the nation in two point field goal percentage offense this season. I don’t think this offense can keep up that level of efficiency. Minnesota is too reliant on Dawson Garcia. Garcia is a good player, but teams in the Big Ten are going to have some better game plans for slowing him down and forcing someone else to beat them.