Boston Bruins vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/27/2024

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Saturday, April 27, 2024

Venue:  Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON

Where to Watch:  TBS, MAX

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Bruins -108, Leafs -112; Over/Under:  6 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Bruins -110, Leafs -110; Over/Under:  6 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Bruins -110, Leafs -110; Over/Under:  6 goals

Boston Bruins:  47-20-15 (2nd place, Atlantic Division)

Toronto Maple Leafs:  46-26-10 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)

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Boston Bruins:  6-4-0 last 10

Toronto Maple Leafs:  4-5-1 last 10

The Bruins are entering this game with 109 points, a 47-20-15 record overall, and they were 23-9-9 in their road games this regular season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Toronto Maple Leafs in their last game, winning that one on the road 4-2. Brad Marchand led the team in goals scored with 2 while Jake DeBrusk and Trent Frederic each scored 1 goal for them in that game. Charlie Coyle, Brad Marchand, Morgan Geekie, Danton Heinen, Hampus Lindholm, and David Pastrňák each led the team in assists with 1 while Brad Marchand each led the team in shots on net in that game with 6. Jeremy Swayman was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 2 goals on 30 shots with 28 saves and a .933 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 267 goals this season averaging 3.3 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 224 goals against them allowing 2.7 goals per game.

The Maple Leafs are entering this game with 102 points, a 46-26-10 record overall, and they were 22-15-4 in their home games this regular season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Boston Bruins in their last game, losing that one at home 4-2. Tyler Bertuzzi and Matthew Knies each scored 1 goal for them in that game. Max Domi, Joel Edmundson, Mitchell Marner, and Morgan Rielly each led the team in assists with 1 while Max Domi led the team in shots on net in that game with 5. Ilya Samsonov was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 3 goals on 33 shots with 30 saves and a .909 save percentage. Their offense has scored 303 goals this season averaging 3.7 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 263 goals against them allowing 3.2 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Leafs listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 4 of a 7 game series between the 2nd seeded Bruins and the 3rd seeded Maple Leafs in the Atlantic Division for Round 1 of the NHL Eastern Conference playoffs. The Bruins have a 2-1 series lead after winning game 3 of this series on the road. The Bruins have been a really good road team this year with their 23-9-9 road record and they have looked really good in the 2 games they have won in this series. Both of their wins have been by multiple goals, but they did lose a game on home ice right after winning game 1 and they are going to get a tough response from the Leafs in this game. The Leafs have struggled against the Bruins in the playoffs for years so losing both home games and going down 3-1 in the series going back to Boston is not an option for them. With the trouble they have had against the Bruins over the years, this is a must win game if the Leafs want to stay in this series so they are going to bring their best effort in this game on home ice and throw everything they have at the Bruins to even up this series. The Bruins aren't going to have as much urgency here either since they did their job, getting a road game back in game 3, and they have now flipped the home advantage back on their side in this series. The Leafs brought a very good effort in game 2 to respond to their terrible loss in game 1 so expect them to bring a similar effort here in a game they need to win at home. The best way to place a bet here is on the Leafs to win this game.

Bruins Maple Leafs Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Saturday, April 27, 2024 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Leafs 3 Bruins 1.

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Boston Bruins: 170-92 (+25 units) on the moneyline in all games. 59-29 (+11.5 units) on the moneyline vs. division opponents. 36-22 (+5.9 units) on the moneyline off a win against a division rival. 11-3 UNDER off a road win scoring 4 or more goals. 24-17 UNDER after playing a road game. 

Toronto Maple Leafs: 159-107 (-23 units) on the moneyline in all games. 51-48 (-28.8 units) on the moneyline vs. division opponents. 44-29 (-7.4 units) on the moneyline revenging a same season loss vs opponent. 5-1 UNDER when trailing in a playoff series. 8-4 UNDER off a home loss by 2 goals or more. 13-7 UNDER after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game.

Boston Bruins:  A. Peeke (D) Out indefinitely - Finger. J. Brazeau (RW) Mid May - Upper Body. D. Forbort (D) Early May - Undisclosed. M. Poitras (C) out for season - Shoulder. M. Lucic (LW) out for season - Ankle.

Toronto Maple Leafs:  B. McMann (C) Out Indefinitely - Lower Body. W. Nylander (RW) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. J. Klingberg (D) out for season - Hip. M. Murray (G) out for season - Hip. J. Muzzin (D) out for season - Spine.

“We stuck with it all game. We elevated to another level.” - Brad Marchand after their win against the Leafs in game 3 of this series on Wednesday.

“The gamesmanship and everything, it’s world class. He’s been in the league long enough … he gets calls. It’s unbelievable, actually, how it goes. We’ve got to play through that.” - Sheldon Keefe on Brad Marchand after his team’s loss against the Bruins in game 3 of this series on Wednesday.

LW DeBrusk, Jake

C Zacha, Pavel

RW Pastrnak, David

LD Lohrei, Mason

RD McAvoy, Charlie

G Swayman, Jeremy

LW Bertuzzi, Tyler

C Matthews, Auston

RW Domi, Max

LD Rielly, Morgan

RD Lyubushkin, Ilya

G Samsonov, Ilya

Points: D. Pastrnak (110)

Goals: D. Pastrnak (47)

Assists: D. Pastrnak (63)

GAA: J. Swayman (2.53)

Points: A. Matthews (107)

Goals: A. Matthews (69)

Assists: M. Marner (59)

GAA: M. Jones (2.87)

Coaches:

Boston Bruins: Jim Montgomery (2nd season)

Toronto Maple Leafs: Sheldon Keefe (5th season)