by Rod Pearson
Friday, Dec 29, 2023
Game Time: 2:00 pm ET, Saturday, December 30, 2023
Venue: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Where to Watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Auburn -6.5, Maryland +6.5; Over/Under: 47.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Auburn -6.5, Maryland +6.5; Over/Under: 47.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Auburn -6.5, Maryland +6.5; Over/Under: 47.5 points
Season Record
Auburn Tigers: 6-6 (3-5) (5th place, SEC West)
Maryland Terrapins: 7-5 (4-5) (4th place, Big Ten East)
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Recent Form
Auburn Tigers: lost their last game at home against the Alabama Crimson Tide 27-24.
Maryland Terrapins: won their last game on the road against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights 42-24.
Auburn Tigers vs Maryland Terrapins Preview and Analysis
Auburn is entering this game with a 6-6 record overall and they have a 3-5 record in their conference games too. They are 3-4 in their home games, 3-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They lost their last game against Alabama 27-24. Payton Thorne was the starting QB and he completed 5/16 passes for 91 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Jarquez Hunter led the team in rushing yards with 93. Ja'Varrius Johnson led the receivers with 76 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 1 TD. Jalen McLeod led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Marcus Harris led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
Maryland is entering this game with a 7-5 record overall and they have a 4-5 record in their conference games too. They are 4-3 in their home games, 3-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against Rutgers 42-24. Taulia Tagovailoa was the starting QB and he completed 24/31 passes for 361 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Roman Hemby led the team in rushing yards with 113. Tai Felton led the receivers with 140 receiving yards on 5 receptions and 1 TD. Dante Trader Jr. led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Tommy Akingbesote and Lavon Johnson each led the defense in sacks with 1. Glendon Miller came away with the only interception for them in that game.
Auburn vs Maryland Prediction
The current betting odds have Auburn listed as a 6.5 point favorite in this Music City Bowl game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Auburn hasn't looked great in their games this season with their 6-6 record overall but they did have a few flashes of greatness in their wins along with some of the bad losses they had this season. They are still in the 1st year of their program rebuild with Hugh Freeze as head coach but they will be looking to win this game and end their year on a positive note. Meanwhile, Maryland didn't look any better in their games this season with their 7-5 record overall as they had some nice wins against bad teams but didn't come close in their games against better teams. Maryland is also going to be at a disadvantage here since they have a ton of their starters entering the transfer portal or just opting out of the game. Auburn doesn't have as many starters in the transfer portal and they will be looking at this game like it is the 1st game of next season, looking to get off on the right foot here and propel themselves into Freeze's 2nd season coaching. The best way to place a bet here is on Auburn to cover the spread in this game.
Auburn Maryland Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, December 30, 2023 (2:00 pm ET start time) is Auburn 28 Maryland 14.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Auburn Tigers: 4-12 ATS after a loss by 3 or less points. 8-15 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse. 1-9 ATS off a home cover where the team lost as an underdog. 8-2 UNDER on a neutral field where the total is between 42.5 and 49. 10-3 UNDER after a loss by 3 or less points.
Maryland Terrapins: 5-1 ATS off a road win. 11-4 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread. 7-2 UNDER as a neutral field underdog of 7 points or less. 27-11 UNDER after scoring 42 points or more last game.
Key Injuries
Auburn Tigers: M. Nasili-Kite (DL) out for season - Bicep.
Maryland Terrapins: R. Manning (WR) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. T. Tagovailoa (QB) Out Sat - Undisclosed. T. McCluskey (TE) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. R. Cooper Jr. (WR) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. L. Haughton Jr. (WR) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. N. Avery (LB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. N. Ray (RB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. J. Richards (WR) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. D. Gooden (LB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. D. Duffus (OL) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. S. Williams (WR) out for season - Undisclosed. L. Husbands (TE) out for season - Undisclosed.
Notable Quotes
“It’s a lot of hurt in that locker room, and it stinks. Our kids gave themselves a chance to win the Iron Bowl tonight, and it’s going to stick with us for a while.” - Hugh Freeze after his team’s loss against Alabama in their last game of the college football regular season.
“We didn’t have to work hard to get him the record because he executed the system. It took care of itself. It (offense) was the best it’s been in the first half in about a month.” - Mike Locksley after his team’s win against Rutgers in their last game of the college football regular season.
Starting Lineups
Auburn Tigers
WR Brown, Camden
WR Hooks, Shane
WR Burton III, Caleb
TE Fairweather, Rivaldo
QB Thorne, Payton
RB Hunter, Jarquez
Maryland Terrapins
WR Felton, Tai
WR Prather, Kaden
WR Jones, Jeshaun
TE Howard, Preston
QB Edwards Jr., Billy
RB Hemby, Roman
Statistical Leaders
Auburn Tigers
Passing: P. Thorne (1671)
Rushing: J. Hunter (865)
Receiving: R. Fairweather (349)
Touchdowns: J. Hunter (7)
Maryland Terrapins
Passing: T. Tagovailoa (3377)
Rushing: R. Hemby (663)
Receiving: J. Jones (747)
Touchdowns: R. Hemby (7)
Coaches:
Auburn Tigers: Hugh Freeze (1st season)
Maryland Terrapins: Mike Locksley (6th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
