Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/16/2023

Game Time: 8:07 pm ET, Monday, October 16, 2023

Venue:  Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA

Where to Watch:  TBS

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  D-Backs +140, Phillies -165; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  D-Backs +145, Phillies -165; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  D-Backs +140, Phillies -165; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Arizona Diamondbacks:  84-78 (2nd place, NL West)

Philadelphia Phillies:  90-72 (2nd place, NL West)

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Arizona Diamondbacks:  6-4 last 10

Philadelphia Phillies:  6-4 last 10

The Diamondbacks are entering this series on a 5 game winning streak and completed the sweep 3-0 in their best 3 out of 5 game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL Division Series. They finished the regular season with an 84-78 record overall and had a road record of 41-40. This is the series opener of a best 4 out of 7 game series with the Phillies on Monday for the NL Championship Series. Their offense ranks 17th in the MLB with a .730 OPS. Rookie pitcher Brandon Pfaadt was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Zac Gallen is making his start in this game on Monday. He is 17-9 with a 3.47 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB playoff start, he allowed 2 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 4 Ks on 5 hits through 5.1 IP against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Phillies are entering this series on a 2 game winning streak and won their best 3 out of 5-game series against the Atlanta Braves 3-1 in the NLDS. They finished the regular season with a 90-72 record overall and had a home record of 49-32. This is the 1st game of a best 4 out of 7 game series with the Diamondbacks on Monday for the NLCS. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .765 OPS. Ranger Suárez was their starting pitcher on Thursday while Zack Wheeler is making his start in this game on Monday. He is 13-6 with a 3.61 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB playoff start, he allowed 2 ER, 1 HR, and 1 BB with 10 Ks on 3 hits through 6.1 IP against the Atlanta Braves.

The current betting odds have the Phillies listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Phillies have been red hot in these playoffs with only 1 loss to the Braves in the 2 series they have played. The Diamondbacks have also been playing really well as they haven't lost a game yet and just kicked out the Dodgers in their last series. Both of these teams have been hitting well lately but the Diamondbacks offense has been on the decline in the 2nd half of the season while the Phillies offense has been getting hot and is one of the best in the league this season. The Diamondbacks don't have a great bullpen either while the Phillies have been pitching a lot better in their games lately and they will be able to shut down the D-Backs at home here. The Best way to place a bet here is on the Phillies to win this game and take a 1-0 series lead. 

Diamondbacks Phillies Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Monday, October 16, 2023 (8:07 pm ET start time) is Phillies 6 Diamondbacks 1.

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Arizona Diamondbacks: 21-26 (-4 units) on the moneyline after 2 or more consecutive unders. 16-24 (-12.4 units) on the moneyline after a win by 2 runs or less. 26-17 UNDER in playoff games. 6-1 UNDER off 3 straight wins against division rivals.

Philadelphia Phillies: 36-18 (+9.4 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -125 to -175. 46-30 (+14.4 units) on the moneyline when the total is 7 to 8.5. 22-14 UNDER after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs. 23-16 UNDER at home when the total is 7 to 7.5.

Arizona Diamondbacks:  G. Moreno (C) Ques Mon - Hand. J. McCarthy (RF) Out indefinitely - Oblique. M. Melancon (RP) out for season - Shoulder. T. Henry (SP) out for season - Elbow. D. Jameson (RP) out for season - Elbow. D. Fletcher (RF) out for season - Finger. A. Adams (RP) out for season - Ankle. C. Martin (SP) out for season - Shoulder.

Philadelphia Phillies:  E. Uelmen (RP) out for season - Elbow. D. Covey (RP) Out indefinitely - Back. R. Hoskins (1B) out for season - Knee.

“It’s almost unbelievable, right? I’m a fan, too, and I was looking at it thinking, what in the world is happening here?" - Torey Lovullo after his team’s win against the LA Dodgers on Wednesday which eliminated them from the playoffs.

“I just think there are so many guys that have been in these situations, not just now, but their whole lives. We’ve got some really good players. I think we just kind of vibe together. We vibe well here. It’s a lot of fun.” - Bryce Harper after their win against the Braves on Thursday which eliminated them from the playoffs.

Corbin Carroll (L) RF

Ketel Marte (S) 2B

Tommy Pham (R) DH

Christian Walker (R) 1B

Gabriel Moreno (R) C

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) LF

Alek Thomas (L) CF

Evan Longoria (R) 3B

Geraldo Perdomo (S) SS

Kyle Schwarber (L) DH

Trea Turner (R) SS

Bryce Harper (L) 1B

Alec Bohm (R) 3B

Bryson Stott (L) 2B

J.T. Realmuto (R) C

Nick Castellanos (R) RF

Brandon Marsh (L) LF

Johan Rojas (R) CF

Batting Average:  Seby Zavala (.357)

Hits:  Corbin Carroll (161)

Home Runs:  Christian Walker (33)

RBI:  Christian Walker (103)

Stolen Bases:  Corbin Carroll (54)

Wins:  Zac Gallen (17)

Saves:  Paul Sewald (13)

ERA:  Peter Strzelecki (0.00)

Batting Average:  Weston Wilson (.313)

Hits:  Nick Castellanos (170)

Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (47)

RBI:  Nick Castellanos (106)

Stolen Bases:  Bryson Stott (31)

Wins:  Taijuan Walker (15)

Saves:  Craig Kimbrel (23)

ERA:  Orion Kerkering (0.00)

Managers:

Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (7th season)

Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (2nd season)