by Nelly's Sports
Friday, Jun 30, 2023Arizona is the surprise leader in the loaded NL West, can the Diamondbacks maintain that pace to reach the playoffs? Now with three months of the MLB season nearly complete, the results must be given more weight. Several teams have provided some recent momentum to emerge in the playoff standings, including the Arizona Diamondbacks, who were priced around +5000 at the beginning of the season to win the NL West.
Arizona’s Pythagorean record would put them at 44-38 instead of 48-34 but Arizona has put together three consecutive winning months. The scoring differential for Arizona is modest at just +34 through June 29, but Arizona is 0-3 in extra-inning games and just 11-12 in one-run results as they have not had great close game fortune to build the current record.
The schedule so far does bring some concern to the profile for Arizona, however with a 6-1 record against Colorado and a 5-1 record vs. Washington, faring exceptionally well against two of the worst teams in the National League. Arizona has also won 60 percent of its interleague games including going a combined 7-2 vs. Detroit, Kansas City, and Oakland. The Diamondbacks are just 11-10 vs. the Dodgers, Giants, and Padres, a trio they still have 18 games remaining against.
Arizona may have some staying power thanks to its starting rotation; they have a true ace in Zac Gallen, while Merrill Kelly and Ryne Nelson have been effective enough this season. Kelly should return from the IL soon while Tommy Henry has offered promise as well. Zach Davies has pitched better than his numbers suggest and could provide acceptable returns the rest of the way if the Diamondbacks stick with him. Arizona will be a trade deadline candidate to consider upgrading the rotation as they will be a team to watch as the starting pitching market unfolds.
The Arizona offense has been the story however as quietly the Diamondbacks are the #5 scoring team in MLB while posting top six marks league-wide in batting average and OPS, while featuring the third lowest strikeout rate in MLB. Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, and Lourds Gurriel Jr., all own strikeout rates below 20 percent providing a great depth of batters that make pitchers work. Arizona is also third in MLB with 81 stolen bases while getting caught only 12 times, maximizing use of the new rules in 2023.
The challenge for Arizona comes from its division foes, however as the Dodgers, Padres, and Giants could all be buyers at the trade deadline. Los Angeles was not expected to match the 100-win level of the past few seasons, but the Dodgers still look like a contender that may make a few aggressive additions. The Giants have played extremely well in the past two months and look like a serious playoff threat. San Diego is running out of time to climb back into the race, but all the numbers suggest the Padres deserve a much better record than the current 37-44 mark as they are a threat to make a late run.
The Dodgers have the second weakest remaining schedule of all NL teams while San Francisco also has a favorable remaining path as Arizona’s days on top of the division are likely numbered. It will be a great season of improvement for Arizona, but the Diamondbacks don’t look like a team that can hold up as a playoff team in the difficult NL West despite the current strong position.
Verdict on the 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks: Fake Contender
